"That 'end of gold run' phase is a very long way off .... imo"
More to the point is how long before the beginning of the 'gold run' phase occurs, especially wrt to gold stocks?
Ignoring price manipulation, the answer largely depends upon when hedgefund redemptions (leading to the unwinding of gold positions in the futures and OTC markets) is finished. $1.7T under management is now less than $1T so we are more than half-way through the unwinding process.
With mints needing to increase their manufacturing capacity to move more gold from the primary to retail markets, falling mine production, negative interest rates in all the major currencies, coming fiscal stimuli in 2009, gold now decoupling from oil and base metals (and investors realisation of this), I think we may be nearing this beginning... perhaps first half of next year as the unwinding nears its completion. I can't see Richard Russell's sealed kettle surviving much longer after that.
If Obama's reflation efforts are successful and the stock markets rally, our goldies could be up and racing. If further falls occur, then the gold stocks will probably struggle even with higher gold prices.
