i went to another agm

Guys/girls

I too attended the AGM but rather than walking away from supposedly disappointing and negative presentations I came away even more confident of not only the Co. and its expanded Board/Management but of the near certainty that a NXS SP with a 3 in front of it will be something we all find funny one day and perhaps sooner than you think.

In sticking with the (self imposed?) edict that I’m not to comment on anyone elses posts I will only say that those who think there is NO potential deal on Crux or Echuca in train atm clearly either weren’t at the AGM or were sleeping. The data room is not only open but is/has been occupied by a number of parties.

I have to say though that I had an unfair advantage because once again I spent well over an hour talking to a number of the directors post the AGM, including IT, Michael Fowler, Viking, the new directors plus Sue Robutti all of who were quite open, informative and most of all confident on the Co’s future.

These convo’s covered virtually all the things I went to find out: things such as where a Crux deal will likely come from, the process in train, how a deal will be inked, the structure of the package required (FPSO, Capex etc) so as to maximize the farmout $ value, who it wont be with, the price range the Co is expecting to get per bbloe, capital costs/breakdown, some indication on timing, the sensitivity model the company uses for oil price, liquids recovery ratio, etc versus the likelihood of say a 1 year delay in Crux startup. (Needless to say a one year delay is meaningless if oil is $15 above the current level or capex stays at the current rate, approx 25% less than 2008 pricing )etc etc .
Crux WILL be a barnburner, period. For which there is nothing in the current SP.

Same with Longtom (and the other exploration assets) re a new deal, the targeted/likely price range, where the cash will be used, which drilling target was the next priority, the companies preparedness to grow aggressively, Future EL’s, predators etc etc.

And yes all the hard stuff too: Remuneration, Roc, AED/Sinopec, Viking (who I must say were positive and very keen to expedite all the Browse assets and quite focused on the Relative Values/Mcaps of Oz oilers shown in slide 19.)

All good things you find out when you attend and keep asking questions rather than rely on forums with their up/down rampers who share little.

BTW while I think of it, it pays to remember that the LT STO contract is a take or pay deal irrespective of current market rates so while STO controls the flow rates the cash is in the hand. And while the $70m/yr includes the liquids (35% ish) it only covers the original estimated liquids stripped, so if STO are trucking a greater quantity than expected (which I believe they are) then more cash, and naturally this will increase significantly as peak gas price season approaches. And the key takeout of the reserves upgrade? … is that the Co. is confident that they’ll sell the additional 71PJ and then be able to upgrade 1P/2P accordingly. So hardly disappointing.

All up, far more information than ever gets put up on any forum. So, no, I’ve never found the company lacking in transparency. Personally one of the better AGM’s I’ve attended.

Now has the SP found the bottom of the range too?

Oh BTW Ya, the stunning Ms Phillips was in attendance and as usual positively outshone the rest of the room.

Have a good one guys and girls.