SDA 0.00% 79.0¢ speedcast international limited

Why? This is one of the mature stock that has strong fundamental...

  1. 43 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 19

    Why? This is one of the mature stock that has strong fundamental and I'd like to buy more. 


    I've done some data crunching with the short position versus daily closing price back from 2016. The result reveals the underlying correlation between the share price and the short position. The blue line is the shorting position where the red is the price. The Y-axis on the left is shorting position in % and the right is closing price in $



    The main observations are as follows:


    1. The sharp drop is obviously driven by shorting. The WHOLE board bought the shares for ~$4.20 mark if I remember correctly. This tells me the director thinks $4.20 is very good value. This should be the absolute support based on fundamental. Now the price is sitting at 9x FY18 NPATA. This is just ridiculous for a stock grows at 10%-20% a year. 
    2. The shorting position has risen from <1% to 9.6% from early Sep. According to past pattern, it would only take 1-2 month to peak the short position (2016-11 to 2017-01, 2017-04 to 2017-05, 2017-09 to 2017-11). Now we are already 3 month into the shorting cycle. According to recent trend, the shorting position may have peaked. 
    3. I will not be surprised if the shorters are aiming for another wave. However, I dare them. How much can they make when a stock with such strong fundamental is already trading at 9x and potentially 5-6x on FY19 NPATA? It's possible however too much upside risk for shorters
    4. Every short covering period accompanies with rising stock price. According to https://www.marketindex.com.au/short-selling, SDA shorters have an average of 8 days of Days to Cover. That means the potential rise may be faster than we could expect
    5. The recent weaker than expected revenue is mainly driven by low oil price. There's nothing the management can do. However, due to the cyclic nature of the oil price, the current price is NOT sustainable. SDA is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery.

    DYOR. It's only my 2c. I am long term investor. I normally hold my stocks for more than 3 years unless fundamental changes.


 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add SDA (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.