Hi Phill.Finally had some time to chase up the " documentary "...

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Davy Boy

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17/04/20

13:04

Post #: 44100668
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Originally posted by PhillW: ↑

Lets look at the potential odds of some outcomes;

1. Partial Sale - The only buyer would be WPL as any other company putting a bid in know WPL just has to match the price asked so little chance of another company going to the time and expense of submitting a bid. If WPL are interested in a partial sale FAR would have to stump up 10% of the 15%. Lets forget about the spin the 10% into another holding company argument to circumvent PE unless there is documentary evidence that this is allowed. COP sold the entire holding company. They did not spin a percentage into a new company.

2. Total Sale - Same as above. WPL has all the aces.

3. Takeover - Best outcome especially if a company like Petronas with Gambian interests starts the ball rolling. Petronas's only option as far as I can see, if they're interested in Sangomar or the other 50% of A2/A5.

4. Merger - Never say never but there are not many options out there. KAR if their deal falls through a possibility.

My thoughts are that FAR managements plan will be to try and hold off making a decision until the last quarter as any decision made now does not allow for possible oil price increase and change of world coronavirus outlook and puts them in the dole queue. The market is forward looking and at the moment has not priced in any recovery for the oil price. All expectations are that international flights will be flying again by years end. Domestic earlier. Analysts are starting to price an oil recovery as high as mid $40 by the end of the year. The outlier is what the FAR substantial holders will do. Will they grow a set and spill blood at the AGM or will they sit on their hands and give FAR management a lifeline. If FAR management escape the AGM unscathed I would not be surprised to see a capital raising in the second half that allows the substantial holders to average down.

The FAR chart is looking good.The chart is currently forming a bull flag which is a trend continuation pattern. A break above 1.8c give a potential target of 2.5-2.7c area which closes the price gap on the chart and is a logical area for the shorters to commence shorting. A close at 1.3c or lower negates the bull flag and rounding bottom targets of 2.5c.

The evil shorters increased their shorts from March 27 to March 31 by 18M shares at an average price of 1.1c. Only a $198K worth of shorts but down $90K at the moment. Could it be a hedge by someone in case FAR went belly up? Stops too far away for a trader I would think.

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Hi Phill.
Finally had some time to chase up the " documentary " evidence about transfers to affiliates.
Below is straight from the Hunt Oil JOA. It has been translated from French.

FAR Price at posting: 1.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 52.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $48.05M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
52.0¢	52.0¢	52.0¢	$1.562K	3.004K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	17440	51.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
54.0¢	22471	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	17440	0.515
2	35000	0.510
2	45521	0.505
2	33878	0.500
1	30000	0.495

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.540	22471	1
0.550	82295	3
0.600	25953	2
0.610	2000	1
0.000	0	0

Last trade - 15.41pm 09/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

FAR (ASX) Chart

Hi Phill.Finally had some time to chase up the " documentary "...

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Hi Phill.Finally had some time to chase up the " documentary "...

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