My motives are always the same...I discuss stocks I am interested in for feedback and self discovery, nothing more, nothing less.
Putting one's thoughts down in writing leads to a more cognisant analysis of the stock in question, and to help understand one’s own reasons for being interested (or otherwise)...quite often I will get half-way through a post and realise my views don’t hold water, or may not be as clear-cut as I thought...and my view will change.
Analytical research can be very subjective...sometimes it is a good idea to step back and view things from another trader/investors viewpoint...HC provides access to collective brainpower...thus the interest for me in posting.
When it comes to collective brainpower on a forum like HC though, we are of course faced with the dilemma of sorting the whackos from the Wikis...which can take some experience. This is one reason I no longer get upset when people automatically assume the worst in me...they think the same of everyone!
Often the worst offenders are the most distrustful...no-doubt talking from their own MO.
Finally, my views do not change just to support my position...rather, it is the other way around; my position changes to follow my views...subtle difference, but when you think about it, significant in terms of motive.
I accept also I can sometimes appear overly enthusiastic...which leads to accusations of ramping...but that is just me, a glass half-full type.
Enough of the sidetrack...
As for the question re “how competitive are us cost wise compared to all those major LNG projects that were described in the article”...well, this is the million dollar question.
Ultimately, “profitability”, or perhaps we should say economic viability (they are not always the same)...will mostly depend on cost per unit-gas to market.
So many factors come into play here including; drilling and exploration costs, drilling success rates, successful flow-rates, well depths, fraccing success and/or permission issues, government and/or regional/local support, infrastructure requirements (and costs thereof), availability of capital, gas and LNG prices, management capabilities and last but not lease, corporate health!
The last can mean everything to shareholders...no good being successful in everything else if during the process of development and expansion, the Company’s shares expand at a greater rate...this is a fairly common issue when stock start from very low bases!
A stock might have a market cap of $100 million...so with 100m shares on issue they are worth $1 each.
If however, by the time the market cap has increased to $1 billion, you now have 1 billion shares on issue...they will still be worth only $1...in spite 10-fold increase in market cap.
This is where “managing the register” can mean everything!
This means knowing and understanding the profile of your Top-20, keeping them (and a strong support base) in the loop, ensuring synergies of mutual benefit exist between management and key stakeholders, ensuring a “balanced” mix of substantial shareholders, preferably a large and supportive cornerstone investor, etc, etc...and recognising the dynamics and/or benefits to be had from natural market forces, especially when they land in your lap from time to time.
Above all else, use your strengths...which for a small-cap means to be nimble and fleet of foot, not inflexible and slow to move...and willing to follow the most appropriate path to success, even if it heads in a direction you weren’t expecting.
For the record...I still like AJQ (in spite of their last announcement)...and will increase my position once (if?) my current doubts subside..or the Company puts out a decent announcement (showing they get it)...and/or the unusually forced selling (capping?) ends.
Cheers!
AJQ Price at posting:
24.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
