Hi Chris. Thanks for the points you raised, it adds to the discussion.
Let me be clear by saying no one truly knows the picture, if we all did APT would either be $0 or $100. So there is always uncertainty in everything.
On the 20%, generally all online businesses have a churn rate of 10-30%, so I have taken a middle ground here. I do not know their exact churn, although I would be surprised if it's significantly less or more. The churn rate is not important, it would only impact their year on year cost of on boarding customers. The effect of loss of future growth from implementing the additional steps is more serious.
I have seen arguments that if APT is to be regulated, so should utility companies, telephone companies etc. Let me first begin by saying that Telephone companies do conduct background and credit checks when you sign up for a plan in the background, and it can cost them upwards of $10-$20. So that argument is moot. Further, prepaid is not even comparable, because you pay upfront.
Utilities companies are an interesting one. Here there is a balance - do you stop someone from being able to bathe themselves or put a light on in their house because you think they may not be able to afford it? Utilities are an essential, and a necessary evil is providing payment terms (i.e. credit). APT Is not a necessity - it is locked onto disposable income - so it comes under stricter interpretation.
Here is my two cents. If there are other examples of companies I am happy to provide my thoughts.
Cheers,
APT Price at posting:
$11.75 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
