NBaz,As advised, the well has a 32% chance of success. This is...

NBaz,
As advised, the well has a 32% chance of success. This is fairly high for a wildcat, where the numbers are usually 20% to 25%. I have been told by technical people in the know that the key to this well is reservoir. Woodside had always believed the Legendre sands did not extend west from Perseus. However, once Zeus was drilled by MEO, it proved that a significant Calypso & Legendre sand column was present which have been tracked on 3D to Artemis, and these sand have fantastic porosity and permeability, many, many times better than the sands in Karoon's Poseidon. So one has to tick the boxes:
- Source is Triassic, and such source is proven all around Artemis with Wheatstone, Pluto, Janse, etc;
- Seal: the entire area has a strong, well understood regional seal;
- Reservoir: note the comments above regarding probably some of the best reservoir sands in Australia which provide a very large gas tank and will offer fantastic gas flows with testing & production wells;
- Trap: this is important because Zeus had a risky stratigraphic trap. Artemis is a more conventional structural trap like Wheatstone and Pluto (lower risk);
- DHI's: this matter is very special. Most drilling in the Carnarvon these days targets DHI, mainly amplitude anomilies. Artemis has a strong amplitude and AVO signatures, that critically follows the exact contour of the interpreted gas-water-contact (see slide 5 of the recent roadshow presentations).
Then you add near-ology: Artemis is in the heart of the most successful hydrocarbon province in Australia, where multiple LNG projects surround the potential field, that are all screaming for more gas.
From my point of view, it is little wonder Petrobras came in and blew the competition away with a three well farmin and ~$80M of cash!
At the end of the day, all will be revealed by the drill bit, so don't bet the house on it, but don't be surprised if we all do very nicely out of this one!