Contradictor,I think you invited me to comment, I don't need to...

Contradictor,

I think you invited me to comment, I don't need to be asked twice.

I want to be a WHC bull right now but there are still a few things that don't sit well. Anyway funny story, I could not post all day as closed my short on a "at market" order on open and placed the same number of units I was short to long (posting would have meant I would need to change my declaration at the bottom of the post), anyway the weight of being long was just too heavy for me so had to restore the short position ~30 mins before close. I feel a little guilty for making money off a long when I know I should be short...

Thermal coal prices are definitely looking strong and expect them to have a good week this week. My three reasons to be short:
1) Thermal coal prices need to break US$67 IMO to really show the rot has stopped and this current strength in pricing is not just a short term dynamic as a result of Glencore's school holiday shut down;
2) My calculator is unable to do maths that shows me how WHC could possible meet a normal ebitda over interest costs covenant ratio for the rolling 12 months to 31 Dec (this is a backwards looking covenant)
3) There are attractive provisions as part of the ASX COIVD capital raise rules that expire in early Nov and I fear that if this thermal coal price recovery does not continue into October the WHC board may actually capitulate and do a raise.

Anyway good luck to the longs, one day I will be with you for longer than ~ 5.5 hours.

Cheers

Robin