I have owned shares in this company for several years, and the potential of their pain drug, ACV1, drove my investment decision at least as much as what was then the major value driver of the company, AOD9604, their ill-fated weight loss product.
I believe that the Metabolic share price will appreciate substantially over the next three months based on a positive ressult from the Phase 2-A trial recently completed and about to be announced. How much it actually appreciates will depend on how good the trial results are.
If the company reports evidence of profound or significant pain reduction in all or most of the trial participants, then the appreciation could be to the mid 30 cent range or even higher over the next three months. It could reach 50 to 60 cents. If the results are more ambiguous, but still showing good pain reduction for a majority of participants, then I'd look for a price in the mid 20 cent range by September.
Of course, no one can really know what hundreds of investors will decide.
The main driver that could put REAL value into these shares is a partnering deal with a major phamaceutical house. I am sure that if the just ended trial shows significant pain reduction in all or most of the trial participants, there will be immediate and serious interest by several large companies. This interest probably already exists, and these trial results might just drive a deal to an early completion.
If a deal were to be struck comparable with other recent deals; benchmarked against, say the 2002 Neuromed-Pfizer deal, Metabiolic's share price would no longer be measured in cents, but once again would be measured in dollars and cents.
MBP Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
