IBX - Potential 25 BAGGER!, page-343

all imo
this is how i see it playing out, siemens are here for the MRI contrast that replaces gadolinium, and add with the marketing advantage if they own the MRX early detection, is a whole another revenue monster for them that will fit in the conga line of diagnostics.

They will wait for the initial results of the MRI 2.0 trials.If they are smart, they will grab us cheaply for 3-500m before we complete pivotal stage 2 studies of MRX.

Because as soon as those are over, and we go commercial MRX, the MC will have already moved up significantly.

In parallel, If they havent taken us over early, but we started the process to commercialize our smart NP for MRI, the MRI revenue model will be apparent to the wider market, and the MC will already be approaching $1B etc, given the forward sales metrics. Add with the potential of some major JV sponsoring our development of MRX.

If at that point we get a takeover by other, GE etc, then whoever our JV development partner is, will fight back, and make a superior offer.There is a difference in offer value, if you get in early, when commercial is still a couple of years away. But if you wait until JV partnering starts to form, you are up for a significantly higher price, based on confidence of execution of commercial pathways.

Takeover is based on forward earnings, risk of execution, and time discount. The closer you get to the prize, the more apparent the multiple on those earnings.A gold mine, in operation, taken over, etc, will have to pay for a few years of current production cash surplus, plus assessment of mine life remaining.Our gold reserves and mine life (NPs) are infinite. But we are not yet a producer. (except for NP sales to third parties)

If you fast forward 5 years or 10 years, and we have sales in the 100's -1000's m, the takeover is then a multiple of those cash profits x number of years pay out, to take it up front, or wait for it. It has to be compelling for the seller, us, short term, say 4 years of cash in hand, and for the buyer long term, 50 years of cash etc.

To pay 3-500m early on, say early 2021, you the predator are taking the bet that all then falls into play. And argue to the vendor, us, that they are taking the risk.