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AVZ avz minerals limited

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ICSID Count Down vs Kobold, page-20

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sf120

3,223 Posts.

3993

12/06/25

09:27

Post #: 79401378
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Originally posted by Amovatio: ↑

"AVZ drops the ICC and ICSID" cases! IMO Neither will happen without a Full agreement for the ML to be issued for both North and South. Seriously, the North is part of the negotiations now with the DRC. This area is the critical sticking point which the DRC does not want to pay compensation for.
The corrupt deal that was done to change the Mining code so that Manono Lithium/Zijin could acquire it would almost certainly be our next challenge after the initial ICSID Hearing.

AVZ already has preliminary verdicts against the DRC and Cominiere. So the DRC has no leverage should a legal challenge be mounted for the North and South areas to be included as one Permit area that AVZ should be granted a ML for. The DRC know proceeding to ICSID is a no win situation for them. There is no way Zjin is going to keep Manono North. A second legal case is almost inevitable for AVZ to pursue the North if a decision is made to go to the ICSID hearing now. A verdict to award the North to AVZ will be almost automatic on the back of the first hearing.

I hope AVZ stand firm on the due date for negotiated outcome with the DRC, before 23rd June. Under no circumstances should AVZ extend the period of negotiation.The DRC need to act immediately and start making decisions for their future or the situation in the DRC and for the safety of its citizens is going to get seriously worse for them.
How can anyone believe the Rwandans want to be party to a security deal. The Rwandans think they are on the world stage dictating the terms to International investors wanting access to their Mineral wealth. IMO the Rwandans believe they can take the DRC and then control where the Minerals go. The M3 Rebels are showing no real intent on exiting the DRC and military force will be the only way they will withdraw from the region.
Does anyone think that after 15 years of battle the M3 Rebels are going to go home and live normal lives. Fighting is what they know. Why would they want to diminish their power base.
IMO this will go nowhere in the short term without the Security deal being signed and the Rwandans withdrawing from the DRC. Force may be the only way for the US to restore order so that a Minerals deal can be agreed and begin to be implemented.
The one point which may force US intervention in the short term is with AVZ and the DRC reaching an agreement prior to 23rd June. Even without a security deal with the Rwandans the US will then have no problem exercising their military influence to protect its investors and the DRC people.

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great post, its also worth noting the delay in ICSID was coincidentally a week after Minerals Deal. AVZ I believe are not interested in waiting, they have CATH in one corner, and they have a 100% win outcome via ICISD. The pressure for a deal is on Kobold and DRC, AVZ might push it out a bit more; say a week or two but its clear AVZ are putting pressure with shifts in weeks, not months.

I have always believed the best outcome is for AVZ to secure a valuation/deal AFTER they reach an ICSID settlement. This allows for future value pricing to be factored in and takes us away from current lithium market peer-multiples

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
34 Upvote

4 Great analysis

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