Agree, and agree - an ICSID valution gives us a fair and aligned...

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sf120

3,222 Posts.

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12/06/25

09:35

Post #: 79401543
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Originally posted by combaste: ↑

After months, I'd like to share my personal opinion on this white-collar crime case.
@sf120 I think Option 1 will unfortunately be the case.
Why?
- I don't currently see a timely agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. It's being postponed and is the basic prerequisite for everything else.
- I also believe that there is still no satisfactory agreement between Kobold Metals and AVZ Minerals. (Just a hunch)
Here's another perspective:
We know that the compensation at stake before the ICSID will be approximately $10 billion. That's $2.85 per share!
If the case goes to trial, no company in the world can bring Manono's lithium onto the global market in US dollars without the assets being collected through the US dollar payment system. The only problem is that this resource is needed and crucial for global development.
The $10 billion will always be on the table, regardless of the negotiations.
I think this saga will only be over if Kobold Metals or another interested party puts this $10 billion on the table with at most a small discount.
I hope that happens.
From this perspective, I'm not thinking about market values or economic calculations. This perspective only considers the compensation, the price tag that the ICSID will attach.
The law is abstract!

Good luck to all AVZ investors.

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Agree, and agree - an ICSID valution gives us a fair and aligned position to negotiate on. Afterall the settlement is recoverable through DRC asset freezes etc. Therefore Kobold merely needs to allocate a fair percentage to discount for the trouble it would take to achieve the settlement.

We are in a win-win situation no matter which way we go in my opinion.

DRC wants to close this
Kobold wants to buy this
CATH wants to secure this
ICSID is ready to close this.

Gravy!

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
80 Upvote

3 Great analysis

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Agree, and agree - an ICSID valution gives us a fair and aligned...

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