I'd like some feedback/a critique please - dub, page-8 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by dub ↑

Hi,

Someone this morning sent me the following email :-

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Watch "World November Financial Crash (Bo Poiny)" on You Tube

https://youtu.be/YsKvA9h_Y2c

If stock market crash happens... is gold and silver to be the best protection?

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I watched the video, then emailed my reply copied below.

I'm not an economist : 20 years of my earlier life were spent running a veterinary practice, but hat was a long time ago.

I'm not sure whether the 'Economics' forum is even the right forum to use , but I would like some other people to comment (good and bad) on what I've sent in honesty.

Thank you in advance. dub

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Hi Rob,

For mine, there is no doubt that the market (and a lot of other things) are going to crash. It’s inevitable, and would (and SHOULD) have occurred well before now if normal market forces had prevailed.

That’s why I started my interest in silver and gold way back in 2000. At that time I was full-time stock trading (1999 -2003) - using TA (Technical Analysis) which is what the video is 100% all about (except for the Old Testament stuff at the end).

But normal TA doesn’t work if the markets aren’t subject to those normal market forces and are massively interfered with by the Fed with its printing and injection of trillions of $’s …. so the crash I’ve been expecting (and which started to happen in 2008) hasn’t yet occurred - but it will.

TA uses the ongoing and historical pattern of the buying and selling of stocks by those active in the markets, and that it’s what I used for trading (short term).

The alternative is FA (Fundamental Analysis) which, as the name suggests, uses business fundamentsl eg a company’s financial status, products, prospect for discovery, innovation, level of debt, management, competitors in the market etc etc. Certain business indicators are useful (normally) in assessing a company’s strength - an important yet simple one of these is P/E - price/earnings.

Like TA, FA becomes fairly unreliable when trillions of new dollars are created and injected into the market …. instead of causing direct price inflation of goods and services due to each dollar being worth less because there is now many more of them, the effect has been transferred into/onto stocks and property. Hence the ‘boom’ in stock prices and the ‘boom’ in house prices since 2008 …. the extra trillions crreated and injected have just been put into stocks/buybacks/properties etc. It’s not real … as will be found out by the world when the paper money is seen to be of little/no worth.

It seems highly likely that, when the crash starts, the Central Banks of the World will create and distribute vast amounts of new ‘money’ in an attempt to keep everything ‘up’. But I’m pretty sure it’s not going to work this time - and stocks, property etc will crash. As there’s nothing I can do to stop it, my one concern at the moment is Will That Then Cause Deflation in the $ ??? As I’ve just put all my super money into ‘Cash’, that’s a real concern for me, so I’m seeking out/reading articles on just that.

In any event, I’m reassured by having substantial holds in silver and some gold …. it will do very well for mine. So too I think will oil - but I have none.

I don’t know about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies - as I have no interest in them at all. I’m interested though in the blockchain technology itself which is here to stay and grow.

Just in closing, these are obviously just my opinions, developed for my own use. I don’t suggest to anybody else that they’re right, and you should NOT follow simply what I say.

I’m back on Sat.

cheers

... (dub)

ps I do have another concern about the stock/property market crash - it will bring complete social destruction and world war (a la Strauss and Howe’s Fourth Turning.). But there’s nothing I can do about that either.

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again, TIA
dub

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Hi dub
Just my two pennies worth not being an economist ( which to me is a dirty word anyway)

Facts
The share market has risen well above any expected "normal" amount with most shares selling for far more than their capitalized value would place them
Housing is the same with (in Australia) prices of materials and labor not to mention taxes far beyond the norm. (Check on prices of building materials in other parts of the world)
Governments and money institutions have bastardised the capitalist system of supply and demand to the stage that we have basically government control of the economy n almost every facet, it is in fact a manipulated dictatorship, certainly not a democratic one which is essential for a true capitalistic system

Data and government figures can no longer be relied upon as an accurate measure, look at unemployment figures against those underemployed in contract and part time work, look at the GDP figures, the CPI figures all manipulated to show what the governments want you to see for political reasons

Therefore due to the above there has to be a correction as everything has become far too top heavy

When that time comes I have no idea but it will come so we each have to prepare as best we can for the correction we have to have

I think that the God has promised it bit devalues the story and I did some research with my charting system and various shares on his "wedge" theory and brought up numerous share actions which have not supported his claims either

Just my opinion and finally like the boy scouts Always be prepared and don't put all your eggs in one basket

Most important don;t stop trying to enjoy your life and "smelling the roses" the bus may never knock you over

Be careful or be lucky