Hi fellow HC'ers! I've been following recent threads with considerable interest, and have a few perspectives to offer regards potential 'Mr Market' concerns:
1. Access to funding. The high yield markets in the USA are in a bit of turmoil and this may be concerning shareholders, as TFC's ability to generate free cashflow is still a bit of an unknown given investment and growth needs. With interest expense only covered <3x by EBITDA, share dilution is not out of the question
2. Fear of global slowdown/recession/bear market. Given signs of a slowing global economy, and a USA stockmarket that has done very well since 2008 there are concerns a bear market is materialising and strengthening. Looking at the USA's S&P 500 chart another 25% downside from current levels appears realistic if the bear market continues, and where the USA goes, we go.
3. Revenue concerns: in a slowing economic and stockmarket environment will demand for new Plantation investments be sustained, and thus TFC revenue? We are all excited about oil/heartwood production, but TFC still needs new investments to keep profits going for a few years yet.
4. Pricing of oil: again, in a slowing global economy will oil pricing be sustained?
5. Valuation: we know if all sales goals are achieved planned then FY16 and FY17 EBITDAs should be ~$62 and ~$82m which in turn implies EPS of ~5c and ~9c = 23x FY16 PER and ~12x FY17 PER. Not really 'dirt cheap' for anyone looking at current valuation metrics. And in a bear market I would expect investors to focus on cash generation rather than NTA.
We are all well aware of TFC's positive attributes and long-term value. Indeed, my personal belief is that investors have until ~2019 to make a decision on the stock as that is when the market's time horizon will start to properly acknowledge the growth in earnings via large-scale harvesting. We can also note what happened to the stock this time last year before the 1H15 result....the dip then jump...will history repeat (or at least rhyme).
So comments would be most welcome...are my negative concerns valid, or a load of rubbish, or a bit of both?
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