LYC 1.14% $6.22 lynas rare earths limited

idle speculation while waiting for aelb 2night

  1. 3,069 Posts.
    So, just contemplating scenarios that could play out tonight at AELB media breifing, 4.30pm EST and effects they might have on SP direction:

    - Worst case, AELB announce Lynas submission unsatisfactory and fail to give any timeframe for reconsideration - SP will capitulate. (TOL will still be issued when Lynas resubmit satisfactory plan of course.) 0.0005% chance, but trying to be rational and fair.
    - Worst case that I can think of that actually might occur: AELB provide no new information or update on situation or timeframe and simply field questions and assure public LAMP is safe as previously stated etc, so it is just a publicity exercise after all. SP will suffer on Friday and until specific timeframe for TOL issue is known. *This scenario would not be pre-empted by a 4pm ASX ann, most of the others might well.
    - AELB state Lynas submission needed revision for reasons x, y and z, have received new submission and will announce decision by specific date eg Tuesday. Probably SP will suffer temporarily then build up before decision, not entirely sure.
    - AELB issued TOL today, LYC ann out at 4pm and media briefing is to discuss this. We might also hear some details related to the special committee the PSC recommended. SP gets on board the Rorkes rocket.

    anyone else got other possible outcomes?
 
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