Greetings,
Some idle speculation on my part;
1. There are approximately 350 million AGS shares on issue. For each share to have a potential payout from the sale of ACE's 25% of B4M the purchase price must, therefore be $(Au) 350 million.
2. In my view the only logical purchaser is Quasar who have an (unknown) preemptive right to purchase ACE's 25% in the JV. In its simplest terms this right may require to match the highest acceptable bid from a third party or to make an offer in its own right.
3. I do not believe Itochu enter into the equation. They have rights to purchase, under certain circumstances, a share in ACE and in AGS itself. There does not appear to be any right, unless it has not been disclosed by AGS, to purchase directly any percentage of the JV. They may well make an offer but it will be on all fours with any other offers.
4. I believe that any offer from Quasar will be on a "Lump Sum- take it or leave it" basis. It will not be tied to any known reserves, recovery factors, price of Uranium etc thus removing any possibility of negotiations, future disputes, legal actions et al. The purchase agreement would also cover current disputes, eg that over whether drill is delineation or exploration.
5. I do not think that the AGS Board will return the whole purchase price to shareholders but will retain a significant percentage as "working capital" and to "further the companies various prospects". Your guess is as good as mine on how much would be returned/retained but mine is currently 70/30%.
6. I wonder whether the Board will seek to additionally reward themselves for "the successful completion of the sale of the 25% of the JV" !
All in my opinion, no ears to the ground, funny emails, contact from "insiders" etc. Open for, I hope, reasoned discussion.
Best wishes,
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