IDO1/Keytruda combo trial fails in melanoma, page-8

Whilst this failed Phase III trial boosts the likely future value of Cavatak, I do not believe that it changes the current value of VLA one iota. Afterall, a Cavatak combo trial has yet to be put to the test in Phase III. Until then it is an unknown in the medical world where it's all about data.

The below announcement sent shivers through the entire oncology/immunotherapy space on the stockmarket. Why? It simply casts doubts on the novel immunotherapy field. That's why it is still referred to as "novel" one can only guess. Cavatak is still classed in the field of "novel immunotherapy".

Do not get me wrong... I personally believe that Catavak is the standout cancer drug (in combo with the proven checkpoint inhibitors), but my personal belief as a shareholder does not matter one bit. All that matters in the biotech world is data. And, at this stage, it's all about Phase III pivotal results. Cavatak has yet to prove its worth til then. Merck know that and so do Viralytics.

I cannot see that this failed result will entice Merck to up their offer. If anything, it highlights the risk Merck have made in making an offer at this stage. In their eyes, it's still early days. My belief is that there is enough evidence that Cavatak will be a winner.... but as I have said, my belief means nothing.

I won't be changing my mind that voting NO to the current offer is crazy. DavieJones's find actually confirms why we shouldn't vote it down. Biotech is a highly volatile and tricky sector to invest in as shareholders and this is a good example of why. Big pharmas take big risks, and for that reason, they don't pay more than the need to in acquiring small research companies. Each acquisition has inherent risk... unknown risk.

I don't see Merck rushing to pay more for VLA, because suddenly (maybe) Cavatak has been proven better and more valuable on this news. It certainly will make them be more reliant on it being proven successful... that's all.