Dear Mister Burgerbuns. Thank you for your input. Nevertheless,...

Dear Mister Burgerbuns. Thank you for your input. Nevertheless, none of what you post here sufficiently counters my argument of a downward slide followed by a semi-protracted sideways SP for IEL. You mention, and I quote, “Do you personally view Australia, New Zealand and Canada as countries that are suffering from geopolitical (see, no hyphenate) tensions? If you lived in a country that was perceived as third world, would you want to come and study at these wonderful locations where freedom and democracy reigns supreme?”

Answer. No, I don’t believe these countries are suffering from any such tensions, well not yet anyway. And I do agree with you that these countries have indeed been great places for students to come and live a while whilst studying. This however is not the issue, in my view. It’s more to do with the countries from which the students are coming from (largely India and China and other parts of South East Asia, but not so much Russia anymore. I haven’t seen a Russian candidate in a year or more). The ones who do make it down here struggle with the costs, exacerbated by the high Aussie dollar and/or weak home currency, and generally find the whole “event” , if I can call it that, quite stressful. Add in accommodation (price and availability) as well as living costs, and you have yourself a perfect storm with nasty headwinds. Not forgetting, these are living costs that even your average Australian is struggling with now.

This is the general thesis on which I base my view. Again, I want to stress that it is just that, my “view”, which, if I look at past experience in terms of acting on it, has served me mostly very well.

A couple of other points:

You write: “Let's address that...You've 'noticed' a market downturn, ….”
I wrote “marked” downturn, not market. They are different.

You write: “Why weren't you warning us all way back then?”
I sold out once the SP recovered after the major dip in March 2021 as I saw better opportunities elsewhere. I didn’t feel there was necessarily anything to “warn” people about. Keep in mind, everything pretty much was being sold down well below fair value back then. If you had the undies for it, anyone could have done really well buying that dip on just about any quality ASX listed company. It takes quite a bit of mental courage though when all you read and hear tells you the world is going to hell in a handbasket, to do the opposite and start buying.

I remember years ago working at the British Council in Tokyo, a colleague and I were talking about shares and investment (not a common thing at the time, as most fellow teachers were abject anti-capitalist Marxist lefties), and he said something approaching a mantra which I will never forget it. “Buy when there is blood on the floor.” This guy had done well in markets buying Apple in the late nineties after Jobs was just back at the helm, as well as a few other opportunistic purchases. I’ve lost contact with him but I’m pretty sure he will have done extremely well over the intervening period. So, you can imagine what I was thinking when the pandemic came along. IEL was a company I knew quite well because of my work. And well, here we are.

You write: “If you're already an IELT examiner…”
It’s IELTS, not IELT. The last letter standing for “system”. You dropped it on no less than three occasions in your post.

You write: “For the record, I think that you're a shorter. There's absolutely no way that you're an examiner. Not a chance my friend.”

Answer: I’ve never been a shorter of anything. I don't have the stomach for it. It takes a special person to engage successfully in something like that and I don't believe I have the necessary skill set or underwear. On the latter, I’ve been examining on and off since 1993; speaking and the task 1 and 2 writing. I also teach (nowadays I “teach to the test”, as they say) helping candidates get over that magical 6.5 on all four skills. It’s a very satisfying and rewarding (not financially you’ll be happy to learn) job, if not a little tedious at times.

Please excuse my lapses. I was down two glasses of a very lovely tawny port and tapped out my last post on the iPad in failing light. I will desist in future.

Finally,.. You wrote: “Out of curiosity, do you think that the people who are close to the business are stupid?” Sorry, I have no idea what you mean by this. What I do glean from your post however, is a high degree of unwarranted aggression, sarcasm and derision which actually serve readers of Hot Copper no purpose whatsoever.