With so many shares on issue this is a traders delight with all the news flow and expectations of success. There's nothing like a solid upward technical trend for the traders to pile on in.
With all that trading I'd be surprised if there wasn't fund accumulation hidden amongst it given how much they have derisked Icewine now as Rigger on ur boards so subtly states
Btw is Rigger an oiler. Difficult to find such details on SC. Seems they're pretty certain of what they r talking of.
Getting back to UK fund accumulation tho. I have found with previous dual listed specs that when u have them buying here in Oz they will almost certainly be doing the same in the UK.
As mentioned (again by Rigger as well)
It takes all levels of money to make a market and it's the potential and derisking advances that create that buying and profit taking between these levels of investor/trader. IMO we are now at level two with a relatively low marker cap of just over $100M. This implies to me that the market has the expectation that the potential is there for greater things.
This market bracketing of a companies MC is purely subjective BUT does have some basis dependant on the confidence in the companies commodity involvement. This being oil to state the bleeding obvious.
Imho we still have room to move out to around $150M before the market really gets serious with expecting play development and this should come on the decision to go with Ice 2. The market may well start to factor this in tho with the next two expected annmnts on rock mechs and the internal resource report.
The thing that has been concerning me with the rock mechs is the relatively high permeability and the seal potential.
My mind has constantly come back to these issues. But the fact remains that with the correct Sweetspot positioning, and by implication the correct hydrocarbons in place, both TLO and gas, that we do indeed have seals in place that are retaining those hydrocarbons.
As far as seal type goes, all one needs is a slight difference in permeability that will create a pressure gradient between pores, or more correctly the permeability channels between the pores. At these depths and pressures even a slight gradient will enable a seal I believe given the correct amount of gas within the pore spacing does not have the diffusion capability to push the contained LTO from the pores to the next strata.
Essentially it's a balancing act and would be highly dependant on what Basinski has modelled with his BEX.
But the fact remains they have isolated what appears to be TLO hydrocarbons WITH gas and it's now down to the hydrocarbon analysis to hopefully show is the correct hydrocarbons with the correct GOR which is so important to the ease of extraction.
Indeed the high permeability may in fact allow this play, in the Sweetspot anyway, to flow almost like a conventional play. That would b AWESSOME for production costs if we didn't need as much fracking. But then it could work the other way and we may need more proppant to prop open the highly permeable HRZ.
Anyhow I've really got off track here re the market layering and its relation to MC increases..
I think we all get the point tho.
What we as long term investors must be aware of is with such a high level of trader involved that the sp will be volatile as evidenced with the spike the other day. If the more informed short term funds and traders get a sniff of negativity theyll drop this like a nasty nappy.
Conversely, and more likely imho, we will see the opposite on positive news. Proof is in the pudding tho and there's no point in raising the expectation bar too far in case we get the second type fracking scenario with high extraction costings. This however has not been implied by whispers on a material decrease in production costs per bbl.
Whatever the care hopefully any such higher fracking costs will be offset by the economies of scale expected with the higher porosity and acreage expansion that now encompasses the Sweetspot.
So GLTA for next week and hoping we get a continuation of good data/news to build the derisk.
(20min delay)