If AL interview = true, why is LYC up?, page-9

rastus2

Unfortunately I am having the same thoughts.

Company guidance for the last 6 months has been achieving production at the 11Kt/pa run rate during Q2. We know this was not achieved from info contained in the 2 April 2014 market update.

Correspondence I received from Lynas early June was that the company would notify SH immediately if any material developments occurred that would affect guidance.

I am rather certain that management would of known the impact bottlenecks would have on achieving the 11Kt/pa run rate during Q2 whenever they occurred. There is absolutely nothing in any announcement or interview that suggest their were any issues at the LAMP prior to early June. On the contrary, anyone could have been forgiven for believing that company guidance was a given. Taking into account that the bottlenecks were managed and that each major section of the LAMP operated at target capacity I can only assume, based on the information at hand, that the bottlenecks occurred mid-late June at close to 900t/month run rate.

I doubt that the company is going to go into detail as to when the bottlenecks occurred or give a breakdown of production in May and June, so the only telling evidence will be total production volumes during Q2. If production for Q2 is below 2.1Kt and the company is no where near operating at cash flow break even, I will seriously consider selling out.