Hi AC,
and compare Citi forecast or coal fto that of Whitehaven Coal yesterday in the SMH:
....
Investment bank Citi expects the coal malaise to extend into 2015, having lowered its forecasts for thermal coal and coking coal yet again on Wednesday morning.
Citi had previously forecast coking coal prices to average about $US122 a tonne in 2015 and thermal coal prices to average $US67 a tonne, but on Wednesday lowered those estimates to $US113 a tonne and $US55 a p tonne respectively.
Whitehaven exports both products, but is more focused on thermal coal, having shipped 2.3 million tonnes during the December quarter, at an average received price of $US66.07 a tonne.
While that received price was about 3 per cent lower than the September quarter, the miner indicated it did not agree with the gloomy forecasts for lower prices, suggesting it expected better prices in 2015.
"Whitehaven expects a stable to gradual increase in the price for its thermal coal qualities over the next year, although the challenging markets make forecasting difficult and prices for low-quality thermal coal will likely remain under pressure subject to Chinese demand," Whitehaven said. t.
Not every forecaster is as pessimistic as Citi, with RBC Capital Markets predicting Australian coking coal will fetch an average of $US128 a tonne in 2015, with local thermal coal predicted to fetch $US70 a tonne.
Whitehaven has set records for total coal production (5.7 million tonnes) and total coal sales (6 million tonnes) over the past six months, and its controversial new Maules Creek mine has started railing coal after a long campaign from environmentalists to stop its development.
While investors typically look to China for leads on the direction of bulk commodity prices, thermal coal miners are typically less exposed to the "middle kingdom" than iron ore miners.
Whitehaven exports the bulk of its products to Japan and Korea, and expects to send just 6 per cent of its product to China in 2015.
"Demand from China has weakened, while it has increased elsewhere in Asia and in India," the company said.
Whitehaven shares were 2.5 cents higher at $1.22 on Wednesday morning.
Read more:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mini...whitehaven-20150114-12nroz.html#ixzz3OqhO4Rcd
(20min delay)