If Hawkes not buying … they may be selling later this year, page-45

I’m getting the feeling that there may be plenty going on in the background with regards to future M & A and consolidation
in the Aussie gold producer sector.

I have always thought that Hawkes Point may be a seller when the stock price runs up because
- over 50 cents it’s a handsome profit (albeit painful getting here)
- they have been locked in for 10 years plus
- OBM must now be taking up a disproportionate % on their gold fund

I think corporates may also now pay a handsome premium to secure a majority stake in OBM … and Hawkes Point may be willing to sell, but also want to share in further upside of the assets by taking a cocktail of shares and cash from a larger established gold producer (like Silver Lake, Genesis, Bellevue, Evolution, Gold Road, Ramelius etc)

When one takes into consideration OBM’s
- replacement value of plant/resources
- tax losses (over $350 million)
- future cashflows from 2 undergrounds (100’s millions)
- exciting exploration upside

A $1.2 billion + valuation (half cash/half shares) is not unrealistic at all … imho