Rather than simply being right or wrong, isn't it better to weigh up the probabilities of certain events or the stock being at different price levels. For example within the next 6 - 8 weeks:
1. 20% chance of the TH;
2.20% chance that the stock blasts off again testing the 3.50 high;
3. 20% chance of a consolidation in the 2.60 - 2.80 range;
4. 20% chance of a test of the 2.20 low;
5. 20% chance of a breakdown <2.00.
Obviously each person will assume different % for each event but this will assist in terms of risk management and bet / position sizing.
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