If in doubt a crash is imminent check this out!!, page-9

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ididwork

515 Posts.

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19/07/18

18:25

Post #: 34458363
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Originally posted by All4One ↑

Ididwork

Ive always said any crash this time imo will be a slow much more damaging grind downward.
The Canadian property market is collapsing right now, the Chinese property market is collapsing, Venuzuala's economy has tanked and so has their currency, Brazil is tanking , Cyprus banks are again bankrupt and another bigger bail in or out has to happen very very soon again.
The Australian property market is rolling over slowly, slowly but this will be the thing that damages people so much the slow motion rolling over. It will be long and deep in my opinion. If you look at the Australian figures employment is going side ways when viewed with participation rate, wages are just flat and stagnant and actually going backwards now penalty rates cuts are now in.
Australian household debt is at an all time high and the RBA has actually admitted it can not raise rates for fear of crashing the property market and bankrupting the banks. That is the RBA saying this.

Wait till the US Fed starts to offload its 40 - 50% of the US markets and bonds, it cant.
Japanese CB owns 80% of the bonds and about 60% or more of all stocks and is in the top ten stock holders.

I could go on but as Ive said I think this time is going to be a slow motion trainwreck simply because of the CB intervention.

By the way Share buy backs were until a few years ago considered illegal and market manipulation, which it is manipulating your companies SP by buying your own should definitely be illegal but there you go anything to do with the stock market now is ok and legal.

In the US it is only a very few companies being bought by the US Fed that is keeping the markets up, very soon the US Fed will be the biggest holder of stock and then what.

It is all rolling over slowly but surely, in a years time Id expect the property market to be around 20% off the highs or more.

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All4One,

The key point is that no one can beat the odds. The problem, though, is the more times you play and come out OK, the more the risks seem to disappear - like have you some special talent.

I will be honest and say that if the all the ducks lined up and there was a crash, I will be surprised. Not so much that something happened, but that this time was not just another 'near miss'.

A slow downwards grind will definitely be more damaging compared to 2008, as you could not depend on getting another V-shaped recovery. Rather, it would be buy low and sell lower.

Been there, done that, got the T-Shirt - never again.
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