if iran bombed consequences to markets?, page-42

The question that needs to be asked is exactly who would come to Iran's aid in the event of an Israeli or US or joint Israeli-US strike on the country and should Iran retaliate and a wider-war ensue.

It was widely thought and has been mentioned on this thread and the one that ran on the same subject previously that Russia would step in on the Iranian side but recent events would seem to discredit that theory.

The advanced missile defence systems that Russia had previously earmarked for Iran have since been bought by Saudi Arabia instead following a visit to Russia by Netanyahu and Israeli, US, and Saudi Arabian pressure on Russia not to sell the systems to Iran. As a result of this Iranian-Russian relations seem to have soured big-time.Russia has also signalled its intentions to support harsher sanctions and a stronger line on Iran leaving only China standing in the way of the UN security council implementing them at the UN or deciding to take direct military action through the same appartus if that is what it comes down to if the harsher sanctions either don't eventuate or prove to be as ineffectual as the current sanctions have.

What needs to be acknowledged however is that Iran has few friends in the Middle East but doesn't lack in enemies. Two of which are regional powerbrokers in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, two major regional powers that are firmly in the US and Israeli corner. It remains to be seen where Syria stands in the middle of all of this and whether or not it will be coaxed into the pro-western, anti-Iran camp as Saudi Arabia and Egypt have been or whether they will support Iran in the event of a war breaking out.

China appears to be the big 'X' factor in all of this and the amount it has invested in Iran and particularly in Iranian energy projects is staggering. Even so I think it is highly unlikely that China would become involved militarily in a foreign theatre at this point in time. Given another ten years or so to make further technological advancements and the opportunity to complete its planned roll-out of aircraft carriers and the construction of deep sea ports that could accommodate their naval vessels and act as Chinese naval bases in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan that are currently under-construction, it could well be a different story. In such a situation it would be far more capable of waging war on foreign shores, and in particular the Middle East, than it is now. However in the here and now China is dealing with acute domestic issues that it has to sort out first before it starts getting involved in foreign conflicts, lest it end up in the same black hole the US has after it neglected its economy for so long due to its obsession with oil and Middle Eastern hegemony.

I remember reading a report released approximately sixteen years ago that mentioned the existence of a military alliance between Iran, Syria and North Korea. The latter is where I think the real danger of a conflict occurring between the US and China lies and for those that think lightning doesn't strike twice I would urge them to think again. The way I see it North Korea is the real flashpoint between China and the US, not Iran, and that China is using North Korea as its puppet to distract the US and keep it, South Korea and Japan at bay until it itself has fully modernised and built itself into a position of military strength from which its hegemony over East Asia will be unchallenged.

Even without Russian or Chinese support it is not to say that Iran doesn't represent a threat on its own however. I agree with those who have stated that Iran would be anything but helpless. Unlike the Iraqis I expect the Iranians to fight like hell and we got a glimpse of their resolve through the Iranian armed and trained Hezbollah who put up stiff resistance against the Israeli army and fought them to a standstill and the Israelis' were forced to sign a ceasefire before they had achieved their objectives in the last conflict the two fought against each other. Since then Hezbollah has rearmed and is thought to be in an even stronger position than it was in the previous war between the two. Iran also possesses a vast array of missiles and unlike Iraq, these missiles are of a higher-quality and longer-range and in far greater number than Iraq ever possessed under Saddam. Iran also has a significant naval force as distinct to Iraq's almost non-existant navy at the time of the Gulf War which could cause real problems for the US and its allies in the Persian Gulf and particularly in the Straits of Hormuz,not to mention its proxies in Hezbollah and Hamas and even Syria should they join the fray.

Interesting times ahead for those with an interest in geopolitics and military history like myself, but for obvious reasons I hope the current standoff involving Iran can be sorted out peacefully. Those closest to me have for decades been telling me that if there is to be a WWIII that it would start in the Middle East. The argument against such a view has always been that Middle Eastern countries lack the technology to wage war against such advanced militaries such as the US and Israel, but given Iran's own rapid modernisation and increasingly high-tech development of its military, missile and naval arsenals we might be closer to that capability and capacity being reached than people realise. After all I remember telling people about China's rise 10-15 years ago and I was scoffed at and laughed at. Fast-forward to the present with a view to the next 10-15 years and I'd get a very different reaction I am sure. It just goes to show how fluid the situation is and how quickly things can change, and how quickly seemingly impregnable countries can find their supremacy challenged.