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If it is as bad as the GFC, the ASX will drop to around 3,600, page-18

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ayyjoayy

160 Posts.

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02/04/20

11:42

Post #: 43837543
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Originally posted by TheBunyip: ↑

There has been a lot of people trying to catch the falling knife. Each time the market drops there are less people willing to catch it. It is gradually stepping down.

Next drop will be mid-month when the unemployment figures come out is my prediction.

The next drop after this will be the middle of winter when the COVID-19 cases peak and the health system is overrun.

The Government stimulus is only partly covering the money people previously earned, and the Government will rack up massive debt, there will be minimal GST, PAYG, income tax, capital gains tax, FBT etc... . The list goes on, with no money coming into the coffers, but rather huge sums going out to pay a portion of everybody's wages - it does not look good for the Government's financial position. The dole payments will swell, the health system's costs will increase, this is all on the back of a Government deficit that existed before these extra costs and loss of tax revenue are included. The USA is in the same situation, however it's worse.

Our 3rd and 4th biggest exports after iron ore + coal are Education and Tourism. These sectors are not faring well.
Maybe I am being a bit pessimistic, but there is a lot to think about in these uncertain times.

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0 Great analysis

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