If it is as bad as the GFC, the ASX will drop to around 3,600, page-27

Remember in the GFC the first canary (New Century) died in April 2007. Second canary (BNP Paribas blocking withdrawal from hedge funds) was August 9. Markets hit their highs in October 2007. The low was hit in March 2009.

I think people are still treating this as a short-term blip. We haven't even seen the first bankruptcies yet - probably airlines first, then retailers, marginal O&G producers and whoever else is caught out in the ensuing credit crunch.

If I had to guess, it would be that restrictions start to be released in the next couple of months in various countries, then one of those countries will have a full-blown outbreak like New York or Italy. That's when the panic returns and everyone rushes to the exit at once.

It's possible that the world will muddle through, but I wouldn't bet my future on it.