if re price drop further? , page-11

"LYC will be producing at CF positive even when RE prices drop a further 50% and therefore require no further share issue.
LYC can repay its debts and fund additional projects from operating CF."

Your post is absurd. I'd say that we already have a hard time to become CF positive at current price levels.

First of all, Lynas is NOT a low cost producer. They target $15 per kg at full capacity of 22kt, chinese producers calculate about one third of the costs. That's low. With ore being shipped from Mt Weld to Kuantan we can never be a low cost producer too. SO OUR BUSINESS MODELL MUST BE QUALITY. Customers will pay a premium for high quality that secures a steady supply.

One point that might have lead to your unrealistic statements is the basket price calculation. The basket advertised on the Lynas website is highly misleading because the basket prices are prices for oxides. Lynas produces mainly carbonate as well as some HREE concentrate that has to be seperated and turned into oxides before it can be sold at the price levels displayed.

Another point that is misleading is pricing in kg. We are producing tons (1000kg) not single kg.

The dissapointment that may soon come to light for many LYC shareholder might come from a calculation of a price level that is way to high because the basket prices have little to nothing to do with the revenue in real life. My estimate is that a subtraction of 40%-50% from the Lynas basket would lead to a realistic income projection.

In fact, if prices continue to fall, we have a serious problem because the dilution of further CRs will again wipe out a big percentage of our invested value. So the question is, how likely a further decline of REO prices is and if China is going to defend its RE monopoly by means of a price war.