If Remestemcel-L is approved -kids srAGvHD

What might we expect if FDA approve Remestemcel-L in 2022 for steroid refractory, acute graft vs host disease ?

Assumptions.
Royalties paid by MSB to Osiris are capped as reported by several sources including but not limited to Edison MSB analysis, at 10%.

As reported by numerous agencies, steroid refractory GvHD has been recorded and occurs approximately in 50% of aGvHD cases. This number varies quite a bit between about 30 and 80%.

As Mesoblast reported during its 2019 commercialisation ramp up, they created a US sales force to target a group of hospitals that represent approximately 50% of all US srAGvHD cases.

Patient population estimations put the number of children with srAGvHD every year in the USA at approximately 500.

With this in mind, I will assume 250 kids are treated initially.

There is not sufficient data to estimate the ammount of "off label" use that may occur with the product. We can use the FDA average figure of 15% though there is no precedent to suggest this , a lower or higher number may be correct.

Pricing per unit is based off Temcell price in Japan. However it is worth noting treatment is weight based, and the USA on average are a big % heavier than Japanese people. ( up to 50% for some demographics )
I'll use 250,000 USD for the full 8 course treatment.

Assumed profit margin, 50%.


Numbers
250 x 250,000 USD = 62.5 million USD.
6.25 million royalty max to Osiris.
31.25 million cost.
Which leaves MSB after costs - 25 million USD for srAGvHD.

Thoughts on the assumptions and numbers ?