if santos moves when will it move

I'd like to start a discussion on when people think STO will move on ESG and why. Or perhaps you don't think STO will ever move on ESG? I know that the answers will ALL be speculation but I'm interested in what people think.

Given the obvious pressure that ESG is putting on the "relationship with STO and the end of year timelines that they are talking about for firming up a GSA with ERM, the feasibility study with Hitachi/Toyo, and reserves upgrades (that will take until years end to include data on the Hoskisson at Tintsfield), what is everyones feelings on the likelihood of a move by STO:

1) Now (near-term .. weeks)
2) Between now and December
3) January so that the HGO option will expire
4) Later than the above?
5) Never (and why?)


Personally I think that ESG must have other interest to have challenged STO as they have. So I think STO will most likely move (in order of preference) 1)When someone else does (that could be any day) 2)In the absence of another bid I think STO will move well before year's end to ensure that ESG doesn't sign GSAs and the NLNG land purchase does not proceed.

Cheers

H