Quite right. A $150 MCap is beyond silly when just the new...

Quite right. A $150 MCap is beyond silly when just the new longwall they installed last week cost $90M. There's still 500 MT of coking coal in the ground and huge amounts in equipment and capital works that are currently operational. And they will be shipping more than 1 MT coal this year at >$150/T despite all the disruptions from the expansion project.

I suspect that since output expansion is a long and capital intensive process this gives the opportunity for short sellers to beat down the price over an extended period and drive the non-professional investors to despair.

Anyone buying now have to factor in (1) carbon tax (2)interest payments on capex loans and (3) lower coke prices if China slows.

I believe that GNM will make good profits even with the full effect of all three factors above. We will have to wait for 2013 for to see the light though.