All the players have some history - when, how? Everything will change if a discovery/discoveries are made. The spending component of the JV's is "small" compared to a Winu/Havieron drill out ( both around $100M or more) so the 60-75% ownership can be reached quickly.
For AZY I would suspect each Farm-in would be treated as an entity perhaps along the lines of the CZN example.
Oz has entered many farm ins/JVs with smaller explorers but, to my knowledge, this is the first time they have moved to get 100% instead of the 70%. [Maybe their 2018 Brazil acquisition was a precursor/similar event, they previously bought? Carrapateena from Teck?]. During the partnership with CZN it was obviously an unequal one with the Capex required going to be very challenging for a junior and a move to 100% seemed a logical step. How to do that without scaring off other "JV" partners by 'using big brother tactics' ? ....seems to have been managed very well.
OZL and Cassini had a good working relationship in the West Musgrave. [Suspect AZY has similar with their JV partners. Rio's news flow for Citadel has been much better than for other JV's I have followed. Now they, Rio, are operator news seems to have slowed - could be Covid but more likely the structured approach a major takes to releasing information]. OZ are in JV with RDM in the Paterson (and elsewhere?).
IGO have begun a strong interest in the Paterson first through MLX, and then AZY (2020). This does seem to be brownfields /greenfields driven rather than a simple play for the troublesome Nifty project. Like OZL they have JV's with several juniors and "need to maintain a good corporate image". Nova buy-out for $1.8B gives an idea of possible financial clout. Their 30% of the Tropicana gold asset came up for strategic review and may be up for sale = cash in bank.
NCM previously owned much of the southern Paterson and has, presumably, a very large database from this early work. They are in "JV's" with at least ENR GGP(2019) and AZY (2020) over ground they used to own. That's the way the cookie crumbles - better technology, different models, out of the box thinking and better luck in choosing drill sites (Havieron for the latter ... perhaps). Long time back they paid a lot for Lihir from Lihir Gold (?Niugini mining) - don't think it was a JV.
Rio entered a JV with AZY in late 2015. I have wondered what their agenda was as they promptly staked two claim blocks that became Winu, and other ground, before the staking rush that followed the first couple of holes at Winu. They are in JV with Alloy and SRI as well as Antipa- perhaps others. The Oyu Tolgoi takeover (c2005-2010) is not one Robert Friedland is likely to have fond memories of IMO. Apparently a long, at times bitter, process which saw Rio ending up with the asset.
All the JV partners have history of big $ buyouts.
Maybe there is a playbook but it's not one mere HCites are likely to have much idea about. Having 3 partners plus other possible interested parties could create a bidding-war but the existing interests are likely to "keep bidders honest".
Rio already have 51% of Citadel so to see a third party come in would be unlikely there. Similarly the interests NCM and IGO are earning on top of their direct investments would all make for interesting negotiations.
As you say Rio with a possible mining centre at Winu and a good geographically associated land holding makes sense with Citadel.
Similarly NCM Telfer/Wilki (Tim's, Chicken Ranch+??)/Havieron form a "logical" block.
IGO's geographical interest is more scattered but large enough - Maroochydore could become a bulk deposit and "basket case" Nifty may end up in IGO's "stable".
Potential discoveries are the wild card. Boxer, Grilla, Serrano-Poblano trend or something else for the AZY based tenements. Winu and Havieron as near term development projects show how quickly things can change.
FMG/OZL or other players in the mix there may be more.
AZY Price at posting:
4.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
