if you dont agree argue buffett as well

Becuase he said in 2006 exactly what I have been saying all year:



Berkshire Hathaway 2006 Annual Meeting Notes and Transcript

Q: Question about whether there is a commodities bubble

Buffett: .Commodities markets like energy, precious metals and oil have all had big moves in price. Copper has been the biggest of all. Most trends start out based in fundamentals related to supply and demand, but eventually there comes a point when speculation begins to take over. "What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end". Price action eventually attracts speculation and eventually the speculators dominate the price action. I would guess that there has been significant speculation in commodities.

We bought our Silver position too early and we sold too early. We are not that great at taking advantage of trends. In our investments, if we get the fundamentals right, we generally will make some money. But booms get wild towards the tail end. Its like Cindarella at the ball before the clock strikes midnight. You know that everything is definitely going to turn to pumpkins and mice so Cindarella should leave in advance. But you are having so much fun and the temptation is there to stay for just ONE MORE dance. The other big problem is that there are no clocks on the wall to tell you when the party will end. Just like with Internet stocks in 2000 and uranium in the 1050s, its easy to get caught when everything turns back to pumpkins and mice again