if you sell today, will you get lll next week?, page-31

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Johnyb888

1,471 Posts.

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03/06/22

16:25

Post #: 61809046
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Originally posted by Red Baron: ↑

On first glance, what you say appears true, however that is basing Leo's price at 70c.

70c is the IPO price, it is offered at a discount to ensure it is fully taken up. That discount needs to be even deeper than a SPP or placement would be done at, because your funds are tied up for about a month before it trades. The market can do a lot of things in that month.

Although FFX hasn't told us the numbers, they did say it was massively oversubscribed, shareholder applications cut by a bit over 50%, some broker clients receiving only 5% of their application. (the Shortfall offer not the pro-rata)

This suggests to me, no way is Leo going to list at 70c, personally I think you'll be lucky to buy on market under a $1

I fully expected FFX to open today below the current 35c. IMO at least half the present shareholders are in it for the Lithium not the gold so will sell at some stage now they have their Leo entitlement. That's about 800m shares wanting to exit, normal turnover is about 10-20m, today so far 64m.

I doubt our SP will reflect the full value of our Leo holding, maybe half. This is the main reason we are de-merging in the first place. There are many companies on the asx with holdings in other companies that are not fully reflected in their SP.

So we'll have a big overhang for some time before FFX returns to a "normalised" price.

Expand

If LLL is opening at $ 1 as you suggests then the LLL part in FFX is worth 25c.
That currently leaves 9.5c for the gold and cash held by FFX.....

That is just crazy. Either you are to optimistic on LLL or this is one of those weird mis pricings the market sometimes does.

Obviously I hope you are right. In that case FFX is a screaming buy.

FFX Price at posting: 34.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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if you sell today, will you get lll next week?, page-31

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