trf market cap approx $42m for 60% of WH and gold rights from WH and robust holdings (worth about $15m)...(anything else?)
ife marketcap approx $45m for 80% of WH
Which is better?<<
Our Man- that an excellent question... Who will outperform who... sort of like asking Rio Vs BHP. Yet these guys are small Coys yet more tied at the hip.
I can only go by what the Director stated to me- Traffords (TRF) has more diversification and assets whilst IFE has only Iron Ore.
Now naturally i been touting IFE\TRF all year long so I am highly bullish on both. Yet outperformance wise- well ST we approaching end game of Iron Ore production. IFE does get 80% of revenue, yet responsible for all costs... whilst TRF owns over half of IFE and free carries 20%.
IFE being a spin off from TRF- a strategic play by Ian sometime ago. Now talking with Ian yesterday his finger was on the trigger of purchasing IFE as he saying Ohhh Ahhh 90c what a bargain.
Having seen the last few min today of IFE trade I suspect he pulled that trigger for another 100K or so. Whilst TRF was left in the dust.
I often ask myself when TRF\IFE are making 50Mil pa from Iron Ore project- who will outperform WHO? In Yr 1 of production.
Taking into consideration that TRF does nothing with the Gold mining or 100% of all other commodities from WH.
Also ROL does nothing in the next 2 years from current levels- as 15 Mil will be very little compared to overall MC when Ore production starts IMO.
So we have $50,000,000AUD Profit before tax, as Ian expects from April 2011 to April 2012. Lets simply make it Fin year 11-12 to give him 2 extra months... As he does state May 2011 MAX to me on the phone.
80% = 40Mil profit pa to IFE (-5mil) 35Mil pa 20% = 10 mil profit pa to TRF (Yet TRF would be higher as they pay ZERO costs), so we will add 5Mil. (15mil pa)
Now simplistically on the one project on a PE of 20- as huge growth and proven resources... Double or more the following year. Then on and up from then on.
IFE= 35 x 20 = 700Mil MC TRF= 15 x 20 = 300Mil MC
So based on the one project we can see IFE greatly outperforming TRF.
Yet TRF is like the BHP play compared to RIO- if any downturn or issue with Iron Ore project then TRF is more diversified.
Before yesterday I was thinking TRF is hugely undervalued compared to assets and it is... After talking for some time to Ian he seems full of confidence that the Iron Ore project will accelerate from here.
Speaking to me at the same time as watching the IFE SP- supposedly with his figure on the trigger to buy on market.
Now seeing IFE move in a few min up near 20% tells me all this is fact. In the ST I believe IFE will outperform TRF. Yet I am far more heavy in TRF for safety reasons. I am however thinking i should even the 2 out now.
As we approach End Game of the Iron ore project.
Ian on the road performing Roadshows to tout IFE further... makes me full of confidence in this project now.
In the medium to LT TRF has many other assets to work on. They entitled to all other commodities from WH and others.
They have the very bullish ROL investment that Ian is very close to and states he will never let go. When asking him if he will sell some of this investment to pay for the End Game to get the Iron Ore out the door. The answer was very direct- NO WAY... Robust Resources ROL is a great asset to have and not selling down anymore. This 15 Mil investment could be 100mil before you know it. So paying 6-7% to the bank seems the way to go.
Hope the above helps in selecting IFE Vs TRF. Remember what drove the TRF SP long ago being ROL- many other projects could drive TRF. Not a single project.
ST IFE
Medium IFE
LT TRF
Yet who knows both are 10 baggers in the medium term in my book.
Cheers Jay
TYX Price at posting:
$1.04 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
