Good post fisho.
Yes high production costs. This article is interesting though (for many reasons, well worth reading):
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-31/miners-expect-iron-ore-rebound-as-supply-falls/4235282?section=business
Especially this on costs of others:
"When you work out their all-in cash costs, for Atlas its cost [of production per tonne] is $US87.50, for Fortescue it's $US84, for Mt Gibson it's $US78, so these prices don't leave much room for positive cashflow margins," he said.
Believe that the containers where in the costs of the original feasibility study (Dec 2010). Since it contained the item in the Transport costs as leased:
"Transport costs (Port Adelaide) $44.00 Includes Trucking/ Transfer to rail/ Rail / Container lease"
But hard to be sure (part of the general problem)
Certainly agree that IFE is in a very tight situation right now, and that if you consider buyers would be other IO companies and they too are in a tight position, then wouldnt see a buyer. CR hard too.
Fortunately we have enough cash to ride out the issue and determine if 1) Its a short term blip, in which case on with the show 2) A new IO floor is established sub A$100 and we are shot. (The A$ being important).
For now the SP will be in the bin, too much risk. No buyers. An opportunity for the brave speculators, but not for most.
Like your theory on pricing. There is no doubt that there's underlying value, especially when you consider the exploration, approvals etc and whats been currently spent. That will probably be the only short term support on the share price.
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