IFL reported they will hit their run rate savings by end of this year, a full year ahead of schedule.
Typically it takes most organisations much longer to integrate, so what we should watch is the amount of transformation costs they incur outside of "underlying profit". Other than that their track record of execution and delivery of synergies is second to none....
In addition, their underlying gross margins are improving, and they are reducing the loss in their advice business.
One option they have is to sell their investment management business where they have about $95bn under management. This business would be more like a Pendal (with $125bn) amd maybe worth $1.5bn using the same multiples as the pendal.
and maybe then KKR (vai Colonial first state) comes in and scoops up the wealth and super business for $2bn which would give us a 5.30-5.50 exit price...
It is worth noting KKR paid $1.7bn for a 55% stake in CFS and is expecting to spend another $400m to upgrade its tech so i would be thinking that KKR is deep under water on Colonial (even though it is seen as a "better business" )and therefore need more scale to drive efficiencies to get back some return plus avoid that tech spend....
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