I am not seduced by Halide X 12Mw turbines or the GE brand. Vestas has a 9.5Mw unit, with other manufacturers working feverishly to match or better GE. What interests me is these brutes are more efficient by a magnitude as they harvest further from ground where the wind is significantly stronger and more consistent. GE claims Halide X has a capacity factor of 63% (offshore) which compares very favourably with typical capacity factors of 25-35% for smaller turbines. This is not the end of intermittency - the key talking point of conservatives and fossil fuel producers - yet it goes a very long way to bridging this practical problem and grows wind relative to the support of batteries and PH. It is the equivalent of doubling the hours of sunshine for solar.
Big turbines make existing smaller turbines look like toys. Connection, permits and construction are largely unchanged. While visible from a lot further away, this surely is not a problem for eg Forsayth and Kidston whose main neighbours are cattle at very low stocking rates. Australia is blessed with an abundance of very low value arid land where large turbines will annoy few people or animals. The proposed SA-Wagga interconnect crosses an enormous tract of uninhabited semi-desert, opening manifold opportunities for large turbine WFs.
So, I do say no to smaller turbines. Anyone who commits risk capital to the wrong side of this critical divide is nuts.
Energy Australia's unwillingness to commit to a very long term fixed price off-take contract is entirely understandable. No one knows what the price of electricity will be in ten years, let alone twenty. GNX's need to slough risk so it can build Kidston with minimal equity has hit a brick wall, despite the obvious attractions of its plan. IMHO, Kidston is not bankable without significantly more equity to support it. The risk profile changes dramatically once Kidston is up and operating with visible financials, particularly if the project is nested within a larger portfolio of generating assets.
Kidston is an opportunity for IFN or eg AGL. GNX cannot do it. We will wait with interest for the GNX BoD to wake to this practical reality.
Ash
IFN Price at posting:
78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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