the reason the shorters are there is the fall in eps between...

the reason the shorters are there is the fall in eps between fy14 and fy15.

heres an example from a recent broker note comparing global stocks earnings per share growth

FY13A FY14E FY15E
ACR Acrux -6.5 344 -49.5

obviously the FY14 forecast is the biggest miss - but then fy15 there is earnings growth falling further - this is the impact of the missed milestone payments not coming through

if you have a look across the market the noticeable trend in shorting is where there are steep falls expected in EPS growth year to year.

So the shorting will likely continue until EPS is believed to have stabilised.

My personal view is that the EPS changes are factored in at ~$1/ share based on 15x P/E ratio for $11M NPAT FY15 - which is what current sales at current levels should deliver.

The opportunity though is that a lot of less sophisticated investors will chase the historical yield and push stock price based on last year's dividend.

So higher the stock goes above $1 the more shorting will increase until board announces dividend.

then it will be a question of whether dividend and sales outlook are negative surprise or neutral. probability is negative to strongly negative.

this could all change if product sales change course - but with fda investigation and lot of misinformation about testosterone among potential patients id expect sales growth would be fairly static for some time to come.

not trying to talk down your optimism. i just offer this so you understand what is driving the people you are betting against.

ive sold my acr and its not quite a short yet for me - so ive no dog in this fight currently.