Is IGO an alternative to LTR?
Something to consider: Albermarle is chasing LTR and looks prepared to pay ~$6..5 billion for what is currently a non-producer with considerable costs & execution risks before first product. Gina Reinhardt, by agressively buying a blocking stake (or more) on-market at around $3/share is complicating this takeover bid.
JP Morgan is advising Albermarle on the Liontown deal.
IGO, at mkt cap $8.5 billion, is diversified, profitable & dividend-paying. Strategically, it is Albermarle's partner in Greenbushes mine...one of the worlds highest-grade, lowest cost producers with expansion potential AND convenient access to hydroxide process facilities and ports..... a long-life production asset capable of withstanding and leveraging lithium supply/demand ructions.
Surely Albermarle has contemplated increasing ownership in Greenbushes. Could this be an alternative to the complications associated with an expensive & increasingly contested fight for the unproven greenfields Liontown development?
The potential, & immediate synergies & benefits available to Albermarle from moving to full, or majority ownership of Greenbushes are quite stark.
How to boost its ownership of Tallison, the Greenbushes operating company (Tianqi/IGO JV 51%; Albermarle 49%)? Majority control of Greenbushes could theoretically be achieved by Albermarle by an acquisition of Tianqi Lithium Corps 26% interest, or IGO's 25% stake in the Tianqui JV that together controls the Greenbushes mine.
Or a full-tilt bid for 100% IGO....
Notably, separately to the Greenbushes business, the Tianqi & IGO JV also own 100% of already constructed Lithium Hydroxide facilities at Kwinana? IGO hold 49% of this hydroxide hub. Albermarle has a stated intention to spend big on extra lithium processing capacity in WA. A deal involving either of the Tianqui JV participants in Kwinana could offer an alternative pathway to achieve & fastrack this expansion.
So, is Albermarle eyeing IGO as an alternative to Liontown? Maybe a longer-term additional pursuit? Hypothetically, control of IGO would empower Albermarle to cherry-pick its valuable & highly-synergistic lithium assets and offload its myriad of other component assets & projects to offset acquisition costs. BHP. for example would likely be a suitor for nickel assets. The quality exploration portfolio would likely be snapped up by a range of players.Interestingly, Albermarle's adviser in the Liontown acquisition has come out this week to talk down both lithium price potential and specifically IGO. In contrast to UBS advocacy of IGO as sector pick due to cost-competitive production capacity, JP Morgan has punished IGO with a downgrade. Is this a pre-emptive strike on IGO? Surely, to be consistent in such a dire lithium environment, then JP Morgan should regard the Liontown acquisition as overpriced, and similarly reprice Albermarle?
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