@skrillmux @thevinnysUS recession imminent and markets will...

@skrillmux @thevinnys

US recession imminent and markets will obviously reflect that fact
the 'market' is now back to 2019 levels in many respects which has its own narrative for another day

The 10yr treasury note is at 16 yr highs ....higher in fact ....closing on the 2yr Bond ...that is a big red flag
this situation is called a de-inversion - there is a very hard landing coming
throw the unstable labour market into the mix (job vacancies down 25% from the March highs) and consumer spending drying up as households exhaust the covid cash craziness and you have a C 17 globemaster coming in on one engine with no landing gear and a hold full of highly explosive treasury notes mixed with inflation and interest rate uncertainty

the US sneezes and Australia catches a cold....

well they are about to have a sneezing fit - we already have a throat tickle from the economic contraction in China and there will be no Ore golden egg this time round to ease the economic pain....quite the opposite in fact

the markets are now responding to the failed measures implemented around the 'covid cash splash'....it will get ugly imo

that's how I see the macro 23/24 - market economy flashing red