Great post
@KingHoves ,
Appreciate the time you have put into your research mate!
Say's a lot about Dr Sud's insights in terms of future potential to put so much money into the company.
Speaking of which where does the BOD think we are heading in terms of share price and market cap?
Why are the Directors and our #2 Shareholder Raymond CARROLL (
@Chaya ) putting so much money into this company?
I posted this week about where I thought the Market Cap was heading
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/general-discussion.5330178/page-8687?post_id=56626918I do try to be objective with my posts, I like to reference my comments with the source of the information unless the post is made on the fly as I did in response to a question last week from
@Outgoing123 . Reflecting since then,
I would like to put some meat on the bone so that I can support my theory with the known facts that sit within my head when I typed that post.
On 28th April this year, an article was published in collaboration with the CEO - Joel Latham.
Click to View ArticleThis article was published shortly after the ASX announcement of 22nd April 2021
"Positive FDA Pre-IND meeting guides IHL-675A development"
The article was clearly set out for everyone to see the CEO's long-term goal. "How Incannex is positioning to be the next the GW Pharma"
Let's deal with the CEO's short-term goals firstly, as most of you (except some long-termers here) will view a GW pharma-style valuation of around $6-8 SP with some skepticism. Within the article, LATHAM argued that because IHL has a multi-channel approach and because each development pipeline benefits from an FDA accelerated pathway, then this afforded IHL's
new drug registration in a significantly shorter period of time.
Moving on to the potential US Listing Latham said “The feedback we have received from the US market and investment banks is that they see Incannex as a
unique value proposition, particularly when looking at
comparable companies in the US market, which are valued at over $US1 billion,”
He cited the example of two North American clinical psychedelic research companies – Compass Pathways and MindMeld – both of which already have a market cap of more than $US1bn.
Now taking into account the CEO's comparison to these two Pyscedelics companies, I consider my reference to them
as conservative comparables, as they are not including IHL's cannabinoid research assets.
@Exalted considers Cara Therapeutics in his value model to balance out the IHL cannabinoid pipeline with the psychedelics only value.
So just as a conservative consideration, I have formed the following short-term value based just on the Psychedelics comparables alone.
I have averaged the Market Caps of the CEO's comparables - Compass Pathways and MindMed then divided that average Market Cap of AUD$1.4BLN by IHL's Shares on Issue to arrive at the AUD$1.17c SP target. The projection for the ADS (IXHL=50ASX IHL Shares) on the NASDAQ would be US$42.81, a 3.45 X BAGS from the current SP.
My post last week read.....
"
So theoretically, if the North American Investors viewed IXHL as a "unique value proposition" then they would buy IXHL until our $US305M Market Cap increased to a comparable value of US$1 BLN. That's 3 X times our current value. If parity works as it should then the outcome is our local ASX Sp will go from say, circa AUD$35c to three times value say $1.00. "
I suggested $1.00 as a target with the US listing, apologies it was on the fly as I said, my more considered target is AUD$1.17 (Not allowing for some dilution of shares to come with ADS / IPO on NASDAQ, that quantity is TBC) and the BAGS should be 3.45, not 3 X.
If the Share Price does not lift soon after the listing on the NASDAQ then IMHO it will gain traction as the North American investors garner awareness with news that is due sometime afterward such as;
Releasing to the market the IHl-42X ( Sleep Apnoea ) Trial Results ( Joel Latham CEO - "Share Price Inflection Point" )
Releasing to the market - Commencement of the psi-GAD psychedelics trial
Releasing to the market the results of the in vivo IHL-216A (TBI) results using the NFL methodology! (They will go bananas )
Releasing to the market the information concerning the second psychedelic Trial which is currently in development.
Releasing to the market the commencement of Phase 1 Trial in IHL-675A at S.A this year and results later in 2022I hope the references that I have added in this post, support my "on the fly post" last week and assist you in your own research to determine a good valuation for our girl IHL.
Good luck all, have a great week.
