Thanks,
@Apprenticeship. I appreciate the comment. I am not a registered financial adviser so I am not qualified to provide financial advice. I do however communicate regularly with CXZ and am doing my best to keep abreast of the situation here.
Exactly. Yes, multi-franchise dealerships are common in the US/U.K./Europe.
Although I think FY20 subscription numbers and revenue is more indicative of the potential of CXZ in future years, we should be aware and note that
FY21 financial results (to be released in the next month or so) will be materially down on FY20 results. This is to be expected and already has been signalled to the market via the 4Cs. It should
not come as a surprise to anyone when the results are released within the next month or so. The only reason I am mentioning this is that the last time CXZ half-yearly results were released, they weirdly spooked the market, even when it was obvious what the results would be (Q1 + Q2), lol.
Those who are following along will know that the company has hit a number of headwinds in FY21, namely:
- 1. COVID (impacting subscription numbers)
- 2. FX (falling USD), &
- 3. Semiconductor chip shortage (impacting subscription numbers)
Also, FY20 results were boosted by:
- 4. Deferred tax asset writeup (provided a material boost to FY20 NPAT)
And, FY21 results will start to see the impact of:
- 5. Investment for growth (new staff etc.) (negative impact on earnings in the short term)
- 6. Organic growth (paid feature enhancements for GM) (positive impact on earnings in the short term)
Thus, I'm expecting something along the lines of the following for FY21:
FY2020: Revenue = A$8.20 million & NPBT: A$2.05 million
FY2021: Revenue = ~A$6 million (down 27% YoY) & NPBT: ~A$0.7 million (down 66% YoY) The semiconductor chip shortage (and impacts of COVID) are expected to resolve itself in time and I think Connexion has done remarkably well in the face of these short term FY21 headwinds.
Fortunately, the share market is forward-looking. In FY2022 (next 12 months) and beyond, we may see not only the execution of the CXZ growth strategy but also the easing of the headwinds (COVID, FX & semiconductor chip shortage) which plagued FY21, providing a double boost for
FY2022.
Given Connexion's stated intention of spending on growth going forward, using
Gross Profit is probably a better metric to compare periods over time.
Nice to see the share price close at 2.0 cents. Very pleased with my ~1.7c AEP and holding firm from here. This is certainly one example of a situation where averaging down into deep value was a wise choice.
Have a nice weekend all.
