ILA island pharmaceuticals limited

8.11%

17.0¢

Thanks for sharing. Noting that this is taking Takeda’s vaccine...

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ma420

8,191 Posts.

2047

09/05/25

12:36

Post #: 78982210

Originally posted by marcrae19: ↑

AI >> Here is an updated risk-adjusted valuation for Island Pharmaceuticals (ASX: ILA), incorporating the recent news that dengue vaccine sales increased 259%, reflecting stronger market demand and urgency for both preventative and therapeutic solutions.
Updated Market Dynamics
Reported Market Growth: Dengue vaccine market projected to grow from USD $90M (2025) to ~USD $200M (2035) – CAGR ~8.3%【source: Future Market Insights via vax-before-travel.com】.
Implication: Greater public health funding and infrastructure could accelerate adoption of therapeutics like ISLA-101, especially as the only late-stage oral antiviral candidate.
Updated Key Assumptions
Assumption Old Value New Value Rationale
Peak Market Size A$4.7B A$5.2B Vaccine market now expected to reach USD $200M (A$300M); dengue burden remains high
ISLA-101 Peak Market Share 5% 6–8% First-mover advantage; no current therapeutic competition
Probability of Success 25% 30% High safety profile, strong Phase 2a data, near-term readout
PRV Probability 20% 25% Greater regulatory focus on tropical diseases + urgency
Revised Risk-Adjusted Valuation
1. ISLA-101 Core Program (Therapeutic + Prophylactic)
Updated Peak Sales (AUD): A$300M
Probability-Adjusted NPV: ~A$75M (vs A$30M previously)
2. PRV Upside
Expected PRV Value: A$195M
Risk-Adjusted (25%): A$48.75M
3. Galidesivir Pipeline Option
Unchanged: A$10M risk-adjusted value
4. Cash
A$4.82M (unchanged)
Total Updated Risk-Adjusted Valuation
Component Value (AUD)
ISLA-101 (core) A$75M
PRV optionality A$48.75M
Galidesivir option A$10M
Cash A$4.82M
Total A$138.57M
Updated Risk-Adjusted Share Price Range
Scenario Valuation Share Price (210.26M shares)
Base Case A$138.6M A$0.66
Conservative Case A$90M A$0.43
Bull Case A$180M A$0.86
Investment Insight
The valuation range has shifted upward by ~60–70%, driven by:
Surge in dengue vaccine sales, validating market size.
Stronger tailwinds for ISLA-101’s potential as complementary to vaccines, not a substitute.
Accelerating public and government focus on arbovirus solutions, which may support PRV realization.
Would you like this in a downloadable Excel model with adjustable sliders for market share, success probability, or pricing per course?

Expand

Thanks for sharing. Noting that this is taking Takeda’s vaccine as prophylactic only and hence no treatment revenue. Further it doesn’t include USA and the US military which is aimed to be one of the target customers for ILA. So the revenue projections would have to be multiples of the numbers plugged into the above valuation. Nonetheless this is a great start if we can get there

ILA Price at posting: 18.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 17.0¢		Change -0.015(8.11%)		Mkt cap ! $40.13M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
18.5¢	18.5¢	17.0¢	$16.47K	93.43K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	40900	17.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
18.5¢	326320	3

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	40900	0.170
3	59260	0.165
3	182276	0.160
5	143615	0.155
13	230314	0.150

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.185	326320	3
0.190	130093	2
0.195	120000	2
0.200	60303	2
0.205	25000	1

Last trade - 10.38am 16/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

ILA (ASX) Chart

Thanks for sharing. Noting that this is taking Takeda’s vaccine...

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4DS Memory tanks as microchip tech tests fail to produce result

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Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

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Assumption	Old Value	New Value	Rationale
Peak Market Size	A$4.7B	A$5.2B	Vaccine market now expected to reach USD $200M (A$300M); dengue burden remains high
ISLA-101 Peak Market Share	5%	6–8%	First-mover advantage; no current therapeutic competition
Probability of Success	25%	30%	High safety profile, strong Phase 2a data, near-term readout
PRV Probability	20%	25%	Greater regulatory focus on tropical diseases + urgency

Component	Value (AUD)
ISLA-101 (core)	A$75M
PRV optionality	A$48.75M
Galidesivir option	A$10M
Cash	A$4.82M
Total	A$138.57M

Scenario	Valuation	Share Price (210.26M shares)
Base Case	A$138.6M	A$0.66
Conservative Case	A$90M	A$0.43
Bull Case	A$180M	A$0.86

Thanks for sharing. Noting that this is taking Takeda’s vaccine...

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