I played around a bit more incorporating that the CEO is...

I played around a bit more incorporating that the CEO is currently in the US presenting to several US-based institutional investors, family offices and high net-worth individuals and already aware of the Phase 2 trial results which are being currently verified and double checked prior to unblinding, which he would not do unless the results are very good. Outcome of this .

Updated Valuation Model

Key Assumptions:

• Peak Market Size:A$5.2 billion

• ISLA-101 Peak Market Share: 7–9%

• Probability of Success (PoS):40–50%

• Priority Review Voucher (PRV) Probability: 30%

• PRV Value:A$150 million

• Discount Rate: 12%

• Shares Outstanding:Approximately 210 millionStockAnalysisAustralian Securities Exchangepharmadispatch.com+4MarketWatch+4StockAnalysis+4

Calculations:

1. Projected Peak Revenue:

   • A$5.2B × 7–9% = A$364M–A$468M

2. Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value (rNPV):

   • Applying a 40–50% PoS and a 12% discount rate over a 10-year period:

     • rNPV ≈ A$146M–A$234M

3. PRV Expected Value:

   • A$150M × 30% = A$45M

4. Total Valuation:

   • rNPV + PRV Value = A$191M–A$279M

5. Per Share Valuation:

   • A$191M–A$279M ÷ 210M shares = A$0.91–A$1.33 per share

Valuation Chart

	Scenario	Probability of Success	Peak Market Share	Total Valuation (A$M)	Per Share Valuation (A$)
1	Base Case	40%	7%	191	0.91
2	Optimistic Case	50%	9%	279	1.33

Interpretation

The CEO's active engagement with high-net-worth investors and institutions in the U.S. suggests a strong belief in positive Phase 2b outcomes.This confidence, coupled with the substantial market opportunity for dengue therapeutics, supports a revised per-share valuation range of A$0.91 to A$1.33.

Investors should monitor the upcoming release of the Phase 2b trial results, as they will be pivotal in validating ISLA-101's efficacy and influencing the company's valuation trajectory.

Note: This valuation is based on current assumptions and available data. Actual outcomes may vary based on clinical trial results, regulatory decisions, and market conditions.