You are 100% on the money.
I am betting that due to some of the very high quality posts by non holders over the last few days we will see the "smart money exiting" on open come Tuesday.
By that i am not referring to hsbc nominee account on behalf of Bergen but in fact some of the HC members that have been following this very thread and can put two and two together.
Whislt some of the true believers have been happy to bash some posters for not holding and posting negative sentiment, it is my belief that this is the reason we all use sites such as HC to help gain a more rounded opinion on stock we hold or are researching.
I know i can speak from personal experience as i invested so very heavily into a microcap over recent years, and i too had so many on HC tell me that the business was going to go bust and that management were crooks and liars and what ever else you can imagine.
However i was in regular contact both via phone and via meetings with management and thought i understood the business far better than those nay sayers. Hence i continued to buy.
All the sell signs were there for me to see, but i thought i knew better. Now being down by a seven figure sum is one hell of a learning experience, on that you have my word.
Whist the two businesses have their similarities, fortunately for me they also have their differences. With my company, we had a product that clearly had no real competition and an enourmous market place.... I got to experience that first hand as i participated in introductary meetings between the management and some of Australia's largest land owners who were slap bang our target market.
At the end of the day, the take home for me is that as an investor in this end of the market, you simply dont have institutional shareholders keeping management accountable as we do in the big cap space. Hence you must and i repeat MUST watch every promise that management make and track how they deliver. The moment they are short of delivery, you need to act.
Now this does not mean that they wont one day bring in the goods....they sure may well deliver. However the pain i have gone through taught me that as in any business, all things take longer to complete than anyone expects.
The management of the business i bought into was not guilty of telling fibs, they were guilty of understating the time and work involved in bringing things to market. Now fortunately for me, i still believe i have a shot and a multi bagger, however it will take years longer than i expected. Not to mention how different my life could be today if i was buying in today at the current price.
You can almost overlay my stock story over ISN and they look identical. On my investment the market cap went from a market cap of over $30m to $3m. Now have a look at the market cap of where ISN has been, and where it is today. They are still miles away from any meaningful revenue and will clearly need to continue raising further capital from shareholders.
If this continues the same path as my stock did, ISN will completely burn the remaining true believers, and by the time it does finally stumble on a business plan or product that works or is worthy of backing, they will have no choice but to continue to use a Bergen or Patersons.
Best of luck to the true believers who will continue to believe, i know exactly how it feels to have non holders continue to bash your baby. Hence this will be my last post on ISN. Believe me, i have no other agenda here, as i would like nothing more than to have my 6 plus hours of research into ISN deliever me a new potential ten bagger to invest in at such a low market cap...but sadly at this point in time i do not see it. Not to say that things wont change but with their current product suite and with a small son who has had his fair share of asthma attacks at 3am, i wanted to believe really i did..
Best of luck for 2012 ISN holders.
Kiril.
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