illusion friday, page-70

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The thing that worries me is that it's what a lot of the experts think. The chartists I follow in the US are extremely bearish, and you'll all have seen Joseph Stiglitz's remarks while he's been visiting.

I like contrarian views, and when propositions (such as a double dip recession and a further stock market crash) become widely discussed I usually find that it pays to try and see what it might be that people aren't expecting.

The GFC itself was predicted by a few people (like Roubini) but the consensus gave their views no serious credence, hence the collapse came as a huge surprise and people didn't get a chance to take evasive action.

So I'm just wondering what could produce a similar surprise now, which would account for the fact that markets aren't already reflecting the very poor fundamentals?

What am I missing, or is it just a question of timing?