Hi ShaneomSome months ago a Hot Copperite posted the link to to...

Hi Shaneom
Some months ago a Hot Copperite posted the link to to a Credit Suisse analysis dated 2 October, 2012. I hope the poster collected a lot of ticks for it because it is a very comprehensive report and I still find information and assessments in it by research analyst Mathew Hope to be encouraging to holding this stock.
https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?sourceid=em&document_id=x473230&serialid=5cG5JylO7mwy2RgcBvKiJrNEbpcqnxft%2FMrnXM5NZH0%3D

If that link doesn’t work for you, google: Gindalbie Metals 2012 10 02

Quote: (2 October 2012)
Target price of A35¢ps for GBG
We arrive at our target price of 35¢ps, (down from A$1.00/sh), by applying an 8x PE multiple to FY15 earnings and discounting the value back to FY13 (Figure 4). We achieve the same value using FY14 as our base year. Our target price is perhaps a worst case scenario, as it includes higher capex and a $105mn rights issue, but we believe it is realistic in the current circumstances. The market appears to be pricing in an even worse outcome, so the stock remains OUTPERFORM.
End of quote

The analyst used the iron ore price at that time: “Iron Ore fines CFR China 62% US/t $108”(increased to $120 in FY 2014).
So he (with benefit of hindsight and no criticism of him) overallowed for the size of the capital raising, plus the IO price rose significantly – now at $138 approximately.

Providing the IO price holds above $135/t, I could easily see the share price being readjusted upwards to between $1.00 and $1.40 when we have some company financial reports to prove how the company is faring. But have a look at the Credit Suisse analysis and make your own decision. The bottom line is that analyst Mathew Hope arrived at 35 cents at the start of October with a far lower IO price, and the share price dropped to a recent low of 17.5c when we are so much closer to full production forecast for end of April. Apart from the shorters, the only reason I can see for the share price being so low is the forecasts by some of the IO price falling significantly

I am holding 640,000 at an average 28c acquired from start of January this year, so I am a happy Jimmy-come-lately
James the Cantankerous