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13/02/18

22:32

Post #: 31034122
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Originally posted by fsdaniel ↑

First of all, every shareholders owe us an appreciate. We introduce a2 IF to mother in China, and make the brand in China from 0 to 1. Though management make it from 1 to 100, but the first step is the hardest right?
Nowadays shorter are crazy, someone even give magic number say $6? $4?. I'm here to provide some information and give us some faith.
I ship IF to China since 2015. At that days, a2 sp worth $1.x. sells ratio for a2:bellamy:aptamil is 1:2:3-4.
wholesale price for each stages 25 25 16 and retail price 30 30 19-20
now, sells ratio for a2:bellamy:aptamil is 1:0.2:1
wholesale price for each stages 34 39 34 33 and retail price in supermarket 36 36 26 29 (that's why you can't see any left on shelf) and funny thing is Aptamil is all under retail price already.
You can see the price is driven by demand. A2 is absolutely in high demand.
I was invited to visit SML's old kitchen last December, they told me productivity is 2 cans per second.
Let's say they work 8 hours per day, and average price they provide to distributor is $23, Gross profit 20-30%.
So easy math we can get earning per share around $0.21 only for IF. And this is only base on the minimum assumption: old kitchen, 8 hours per day, very cheap factory price.
I think everyone may have a number of how a2m worth now.
I know TA sometimes may help to predict how the sp go, but the interesting question is, there are millions of technical analysis, do they all wealthy?
So don't lose your faith in a2m. She have long way to go. Just hold. I think maybe someday in the future I will sell when the wholesale price under retail's. And that day I don't think may come in 2-3 years.

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Thanks for your massive contribution and valuable information. Just a couple of points:
1. The dryer plant used to work 3 shifts a day i.e. 3X6=18 hours a day. It was extended to 4 shifts some months ago. so now it operates like 24/7.
2. Please advise what's the implication of wholesale price under retail price. That means retailers in Australia are losing money? Price must be driven even further back in China when they reach their final customers?

Cheers

A2M Price at posting: $8.37 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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