Based on the last quarterly and on my chat with the company secretary at the AGM and with John Winter at the Open Day:
AS of the AGM, about $2M in the bank with the testing basically completed. Plan was to pull back on the Plant to allow for fixing this and that, twiddling stuff, upgrading certain bits so as to be ready for 24/7 real, commercial, revenue-earning work to begin early 2009 (initially I thought this meant January, apparently more like March/April). This is to take all the Newcastle produced fines and pickle liquor and recycle iron and acid (EARS and DRI). This earns $10M pa, so for this year it was estimated to earn $4M (assuming an early start?), but if it doesn't get up and running until April, then maybe $2-2.5M, then $10M pa. $2M is plenty to see APG through until this happens, then it becomes cash-flow positive (albeit in a small way) based on ONE, ALREADY BUILT and TESTED Plant where no scale-up is required. Upside lies in the fact that it can be imagined that these relatively cheap plants might be attached to steelworks around the country (or indeed THE WORLD) each paying for itself in months (not years), and then chugging along making money while at the same time saving the world (due to its great environmentally friendly profile). This takes into no consideration all the possible deals that might occur, not to mention the ERMS SR which was the main game anyway (even though now it seems that the EARS/DRI plants might be the real profit-makers, especially in the shorter term). Worst scenario = cash flow positive by end of Q2 (probably earlier). Best scenario = APG AGM (2025) aboard a yacht bobbing gently at Cannes
Having said this though, I would like some encouraging news soon so that I can stop looking at tents to buy when I have to default on the house.....(its not that bad really, but not good either).
Does that do it? See how patience rewards us?
sasa
APG Price at posting:
4.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
